Showing posts with label Kimberly Cates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kimberly Cates. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Odd Odds
Those who read the Quarterback regularly know that we tend to be more traumatized by events that we perceive to be rare. If our worldview suggests that something doesn't happen, it jars us when it does. The trouble with this, however, is that we are actually pretty bad at judging how rare things are. Even for those who, like me, make it their business to go digging up probabilities and statistics on various heinous situations, it's sometimes hard to find the data you need.
So I was very pleased to hear on NPR today about the launch of the website BookOfOdds.com. This site is extraordinarily simple. Put in the key word you are interested in, and it gives you a bunch of odds statements involving that key word. For example, if you type in "Naomi," you will discover that the chances of a female born in 1970 being named Naomi is 1 in 3,300. You can then put in the number 3,300 and discover that the odds of me being named Naomi are identical to the odds that an employed person over 16 living in South Dakota is an anesthesiologist. And while those particular statistics may not be very meaningful to you, you can imagine there are others that are.
For example, if you type in "New Hampshire" and "murder," you will discover that the odds of any given person in New Hampshire being murdered in the next year are 1 in 101,200, but the odds of someone living in Washington, D.C. being murdered in the next year are 1 in 3,182. So when I said last week that the murder of Kimberly Cates in Mont Vernon, NH was more shocking because of where it happened, I wasn't just blowing smoke.
If you explore those numbers more carefully, you will discover that the odds of being murdered in New Hampshire are slightly lower than the odds of any given person in the United States having to visit the Emergency Room in a given year because of an accident involving a drinking straw. Meanwhile, the odds of being murdered in Washington, D.C. are about the same as the chances that a woman my age is named Kimberlee. They're also about the same as the odds of someone in Boise, Idaho being a victim of a robbery. Now we can start to see why trauma affects different communities differently. It's not that the incident is less awful to those close to it, it's that it's more shocking to those further out.
This data is also useful in helping us put our fears in some perspective. For example, this summer plane, train and subway crashes were getting a lot of press. It turns out that the chances of dying in a transportation accident -- including a car crash -- in the next year are 1 in 6,212. That's pretty close to the chances of being diagnosed with end stage renal disease. And while both of those things are horrible, we don't live in fear of end stage renal disease. Maybe we should. Or maybe it would help us all to get a little more familiar with some hard numbers.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Mont Vernon, NH: It Happens Everywhere
This weekend, a woman and her daughter were attacked during a 4 AM home invasion on an isolated road in Mont Vernon, NH. Kimberly Cates, 42, was killed in the attack. Her daughter, Jaime, 11, survived and is in intensive care. Four teenagers who live about 15 miles away have been charged in the attack. The allegation is that these young men selected the house at random because of its isolated location, and agreed to kill whomever they found inside. Depending on which coverage you read, they either intended to rob the house and would kill the occupants if necessary, or they went in with the sole intent of killing the occupants.
This is a horrific crime by any standard. It is made to appear even more awful by the fact that the last violent crime in Mont Vernon, before this one, was 10 years ago. The statements being made by residents and even officials in the aftermath of this incident reflect the fact that the traumatizing thing about this crime is not just the crime itself, but how unexpected it was in this town:
From the Senior Assistant Attorney General:
"This type of murder does not happen very often. This is something out of the ordinary."
From the senior photo editor of the Nashua (NH) Telegraph:
"The people up here aren't used to this kind of thing. This never really happens."
From a resident:
"I've lived in Mont Vernon for 40 years, and this is just unbelievable."
From the chair of the Mont Vernon board of selectmen:
“It’s very much that bucolic, Norman-Rockwell-type New England setting. . . . This brings it home, that people who do bad things are everywhere, not just in big cities.”
From a neighbor:
"It's just unbelievable that this could happen next door to us."
I will admit that none of these statements sat well with me at first blush. On the one hand, I certainly understand that violence is more prevalent in some places than in others, and that Mont Vernon, before this weekend, had been one of the "others." On the other hand, it can appear that by saying, "this isn't supposed to happen here," people imply that it is supposed to happen somewhere else, when of course it shouldn't happen anywhere.
At the same time, I think we all intuitively understand that violent crime is more shocking when it occurs in a place with very little violence. It's not too hard to imagine why, either. The more violence you are exposed to on a regular basis, the more your world view incorporates the possibility of violence. When a violent death occurs, it is not as violating of your deeply held beliefs, because those have already shifted ahead of time to accept the possibility that something like this could happen. In some sense, people who live in violent communities get their pre-incident inoculation training simply by living where they do every day.
It's important to remember, however, that no amount of pre-incident inoculation can prepare you for this happening to someone close to you. It is one thing to know that violence happens in your community and to not be traumatized when it occurs around the corner or down the block. It is quite another to be "used to" someone in your family being murdered in their own home. I don't think that is possible. While our world view may come to incorporate the possibility of violence, it can't really incorporate the sudden and violent death of someone important to us.
When it comes right down to it, the greater power of incidents like this murder in Mont Vernon is its effect on the community, not on those closely tied to the victim. Whether you live in Mont Vernon, NH or Detroit or L.A., if someone you love is murdered in their bed you will be traumatized. The power of the Mont Vernon murder is in its impact on the other residents. No one in Detroit or L.A. thinks this sort of thing doesn't happen here. For Mont Vernon, this is a very traumatic wake-up call.
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Meet the Quarterback
- Naomi Zikmund-Fisher
- is a clinical social worker, former school Principal and a Crisis Consultant for schools and community organizations. You can learn more about her at www.SchoolCrisisConsultant.com
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